Steve Pace (Criminal Justice), Stephen Benning (Psychology), Logan Kennedy (Criminal Justice), and Jade Laughlin published an article, "Predictors of Successful Resolutions and Avoidance of Harms in Crisis Negotiations: An Analysis of the FBI’s HOBAS Database from 1982 to 2023."

Crisis negotiation incidents can be emotionally charged events and often prove to be highly dynamic. Using the Hostage and Barricade Database System (HOBAS), we used correlations and logistic regressions to examine the situational characteristics that predicted successful negotiation resolution and successful avoidance of violence during crisis negotiations. Characteristics related to incidents were typically more predictive than those related to the subjects. Situational characteristics that reduce the likelihood of successful negotiations include weapons or property damage to the scene. Communication initiated by a trained responder or conducted with a technological voice uniquely predicted a successful negotiated resolution. Communication with a bullhorn predicted less success in negotiations and more successful tactical resolution. When trained negotiators started communicating with a subject, they were more likely to result in successful negotiations; in contrast, when an incident commander routinely trained with SWAT, violence was more likely to occur after the onset of an incident. These findings suggest that training is a cornerstone of crisis negotiation and, although tactical responses may be appropriate in certain contexts, negotiators must know the situations in which it should be applied.