Clark County is still growing, but the pace of future growth may not be as brisk as previously expected.
A year ago, UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) projected the county would reach 3 million residents by 2045. Its 2026 Population Forecast now moves that milestone to 2055.
The change reflects a slower long-term growth outlook for Southern Nevada. CBER now expects Clark County to add about 204,000 residents between 2026 and 2036, compared with about 347,000 residents over the comparable period in last year’s forecast.
The shift matters because the forecast is used by public agencies across Southern Nevada to plan for infrastructure such as water and transportation, and public services.
“CBER’s long-range population forecast provides critical data to support Southern Nevada’s 50-year water resource plan and annual water management strategies,” said Bronson Mack, a spokesperson for the Southern Nevada Water Authority. “It also informs local conservation initiatives that have reduced our community’s consumption of Colorado River water by 40 percent since 2002 while our population has increased by nearly 900,000 new residents during that same time.”
The Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada both use the forecast to inform the region’s long-term planning.
“As Southern Nevada's Metropolitan Planning Organization, the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada relies on CBER's population forecast to guide our 25-year Regional Transportation Plan,” said M.J. Maynard-Carey, RTC chief executive officer. “Reliable long-range forecasts help us make informed transportation investments that keep pace with changing travel patterns and support the region's long-term economic vitality.”
For more than 50 years, Clark County grew far faster than the national average. That gap is closing. CBER now projects the county’s annual growth rate will fall from 1.6 percent in 2026 to about 0.6 percent in 2029, then hold relatively steady through 2060.
Future Growth Depends on Who Moves Here
Fewer people are moving to the region, and the makeup of the population is changing.
CBER projects that Clark County’s natural change — the difference between births and deaths — will turn negative around 2032. After that point, growth will depend entirely on net migration, meaning more residents moving in than people moving out.
Several forces are behind the shift. Birth rates in Clark County run below the national average, and net migration — both domestic and international migration — is expected to come in lower than in past forecasts. A higher share of the migrants who do arrive are retirees, which is a change from previous decades. Together, these factors are expected to accelerate the aging of the county’s population.
“Policymakers, businesses, and community leaders should prepare for a world where population growth is not a given, but instead earned through long-term planning and investment in jobs, education and workforce training, healthcare, and other features which contribute to our quality of life,” said Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research within the Lee Business School.
The Path to 3 Million
The revised forecast projects Clark County will reach about 2.77 million residents by 2040, pass 3 million in 2055, and approach 3.08 million by 2060. Last year’s forecast had the county reaching 3 million around 2045, a full decade sooner.
The year-to-year numbers tell the same story. After gains of roughly 40,000 residents in both 2026 and 2027, the county is expected to add 38,000 residents in 2028 before annual gains are expected to slow sharply. From 2032 onward, Clark County is projected to add between 14,000 and 16,000 residents a year through 2060.
Economy Keeps Growing as Population Growth Slows
Slower population growth does not necessarily mean a weaker economy. CBER projects Clark County will add 17,000 jobs in 2026 and 20,000 in 2027, with softer growth in 2028 and 2029. Hiring is expected to pick up again in 2030, supported by new hotel inventory and the anticipated opening of Bally’s Las Vegas next to the A’s ballpark on the Strip.
From 2026 to 2036, the county is projected to add about 117,000 jobs. The largest gains are expected in accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, and transportation and warehousing.
Real gross domestic product is forecast to grow from about $200.8 billion in 2026 to $370.5 billion by 2060, measured in fixed 2026 dollars. Over the same period, real GDP per capita is projected to climb from roughly $80,000 to more than $120,000.
About the Population Forecast
Since 1996, CBER has worked with the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada, the Southern Nevada Water Authority, and a group of regional forecasting partners to produce the annual long-term population forecast for Clark County. Public agencies, businesses, and community organizations use it to guide long-term planning and investment.
The 2026 forecast draws on updated employment and migration data, along with national economic projections. It also factors in planned infrastructure investment and expected hotel room additions.The forecast is built for long-term planning. It does not attempt to predict short-term business cycles or seasonal swings, and it does not account for resource constraints or irregular events such as shifts in national policy.
Read the full report: CBER 2026 Population Forecast
