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UNLV Economic Report: Southern Nevada To See Improvement in 2012, 2013

Las Vegas visitor volume to return to prerecession levels, but gaming numbers still lag behind, UNLV economists forecast

  • Research
  • May 30, 2012
  • By Megan Downs
  • Megan Downs, UNLV Office of Media Relations, (702) 895-0898

The Southern Nevada economy is continuing to recover and will see increased improvement through the year and the beginning of 2013, UNLV economists at the Center for Business & Economic Research (CBER) reported Wednesday during a biannual economic outlook conference.

Las Vegas visitor volume is approaching levels seen in 2007 before the Great Recession. For Las Vegas visitor volume to reach the high water mark of about 39.2 million set in 2007, the city need only experience a 0.7 percent increase over 2011. This is likely to happen in 2012, CBER economists predict.

"Las Vegas is still a premier tourist destination and as the U.S. and world economy continue to grow, people will want to come to Las Vegas for a vacation," said Stephen Brown, CBER director. "Gaming, however, is still quite a bit below 2007 numbers; in order for gaming to recover we will need to see further gains in the U.S. economy."

The Nevada economy in 2010 and 2011 performed better than previously reported and is deeper into the recovery stage than originally realized, according to new data analyzed by CBER economists.

According to revised data Las Vegas lost 11,500 jobs in 2010 and gained 9,500 jobs in 2011. Leisure and hospitality made sizeable contributions to Las Vegas employment growth in 2011. According to the old data, Las Vegas lost 14,500 jobs in 2010 and gained 4,300 jobs in 2011.

The upward revisions are concentrated in manufacturing, trade, transportation, utilities and financial activities. Downward revisions are concentrated in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality and government.
Although housing prices are stabilizing, Las Vegas real estate still has a long way to go before it experiences a strong recovery, economists said.

Economists also found:

  • Clark County saw a small population decrease in 2011, after holding relatively steady for the previous three years.

  • In early 2012, Las Vegas experienced resurgence in automobile traffic, despite higher gasoline prices. The number of vehicles arriving at the California-Nevada border was up by 7.5 percent.

  • Passenger volume at the McCarran International Airport is up 3 percent higher in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the first quarter of last year. Taxicab ridership also has increased by almost 4 percent in the same period.

  • Las Vegas is no longer experiencing a rapid decline in housing prices.

The CBER conference, held twice a year, forecasts economic trends for the U.S. and Southern Nevada. Data is compiled from state employment, gaming and tourism agencies to analyze local and national economic trends.

Topics:

economy

Campus Units:

Lee Business School,  Center for Business and Economic Research

Related News:

Southern Nevada Economic Recovery Expected To Take Another Two Years, UNLV Economists Say, UNLV Economists: Bleak Picture for Southern Nevada Economy in 2010, Optimistic for 2011

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