The Leading Index for Southern Nevada signals expectations of a continued slow recovery during the next six months, according to a report released today by the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV.
Gains from the economies of California and Arizona, coupled with strong performance of the S&P 500 Index, indicate a slow-but-steady increase for Las Vegas.
"We should continue to see gains in Southern Nevada economic activity through June," said Stephen Brown, CBER director.
This year, CBER changed the way it calculates the leading index, which will help UNLV economists glean a clearer forecast for the coming months, Brown said.
CBER is now taking a closer look at the economies of neighboring states of California and Arizona, McCarran Airport passenger data and the S&P 500 Index.
The revised index no longer considers data from the gaming industry, building permits, taxable sales, gasoline sales, visitor volume, convention attendance and a handful of other factors previously used to determine the economic outlook.
"All of these factors are important to the Southern Nevada economy, but they don't lead what happens in Las Vegas," Brown said. "We are using indicators that allow us to look over the horizon and determine the future viability of the Southern Nevada economy."
Additional economic indicators released by CBER include:
- A new coincident index, which should give a more accurate picture of the current state of employment in Las Vegas. This index declined slightly in December, due to non-farm employment decreasing by .78 percent.
- Clark County Business-Activity Index made its biggest increase of 2011 in December. The gain was attributed to Clark County taxable sales increasing by 1.87 percent, likely caused by the holiday season, as retailers and small businesses saw increased revenues.
- Clark County Tourism Index fell by .89 percent in December. Contributing to the decline was gaming revenue, which fell by 4.9 percent and McCarran total passengers, which fell by . 2 percent. Hotel/motel occupancy gained by less than a tenth of a percentage point, but the gaming was too small to offset other indicators. December is a traditionally weak tourism month for Las Vegas.
- Clark County Construction Index climbed a bit in December, but is still down from where it was a year ago. Commercial permits spiked by 27.9 percent, causing much of the increase.
